Calibration quiz
Are you calibrated?
Ten statements, each true or false. Make the call, then say how sure you are. Calibrated means your 70% answers turn out right about 70% of the time, whatever you happen to know.
A toy. Nothing you answer leaves this page.
The quiz runs in your browser, and your browser isn’t running scripts right now.
Without them there is nothing to score. The idea fits in a sentence, though: if you say you’re 70% sure about ten things, about seven of them should turn out to be right.
Your scorecard
Scored on this page, kept nowhere- Brier score
- Right
- Average confidence
- Hit rate
The Brier score is the average of (confidence − outcome)², counting the outcome as 1 when you were right and 0 when you weren’t. Right at 90% costs 0.01; wrong at 90% costs 0.81. Zero is perfect, and answering 50% to everything scores 0.250 whatever the statements, so anything lower means your confidence carried information. It is hardest on confident misses, which is rather the point.
How each one resolved
- Pick True or False, then a confidence from 50%, a coin toss, to 100%, certain.
- Scoring happens in your browser. Your answers are not sent anywhere or saved.
- The statements are settled facts from science, geography and history, drawn at random from a bank of 30.
Why this is on a market maker’s website.
Every price on an event contract is a probability. Saying how sure you are, and being right that often, is the habit behind the first of the four rules on our home page.
Calibration over convictionThink one of the statements resolves the other way? Tell us at contact@cipherg.io.