Markets

Many questions. One kind of price.

Economic prints, elections, games, asset prices, the weather: the questions differ, and so does the information behind them. The price is always a probability, and it always resolves.

Coverage

Where we make markets.

Each category has its own information flow, contract structures and failure modes. We price each with inputs specific to it, and check every price against the related markets around it.

Economics & rates

Scheduled releases (inflation, employment, growth) and central bank decisions.

Structures: Strike ladders, ranges, binary decisions
Key inputs: Nowcasts, consensus surveys, rates futures and options-implied distributions

Politics & policy

Elections, legislation, appointments and policy outcomes, often long-dated and multi-outcome.

Structures: Winner-take-all, multi-outcome sets, margins
Key inputs: Polling aggregates, structural models, results data, cross-venue prices

Sports

Match outcomes, spreads, totals, player events and season-long futures, before and during play.

Structures: Binaries, spreads, totals, futures
Key inputs: Team and player models, live game state, prices across books and exchanges

Crypto & asset prices

Strikes and ranges on digital assets, equity indices and commodities, from hours to months.

Structures: Digital strikes, ranges, touch contracts
Key inputs: Spot and derivatives markets, implied volatility surfaces, funding and flows

Weather & climate

Daily temperature highs, precipitation, storms and seasonal outcomes.

Structures: Ranges, thresholds, counts
Key inputs: Ensemble forecast models, station observations, climatology

Culture & technology

Awards, releases, launches, rankings and the long tail of one-off questions.

Structures: Binaries, multi-outcome sets
Key inputs: Domain research, historical base rates, information flow

Microstructure

Different from the markets you know.

Probabilistic markets break assumptions borrowed from equities and futures. Pricing them well starts with respecting what makes them different.

Bounded prices

Contracts live between 0 and 100. Volatility compresses near the edges and peaks in the middle, so risk is a function of the price itself.

Discrete resolution

Every contract ends in a jump to 0 or 100. There is no rolling a position forward: only yes or no.

Information shocks

Prices move on discrete news, often all at once. Adverse selection is concentrated into seconds.

Fragmented liquidity

The same question can trade on several venues, each with its own rules, fees and settlement terms.

Coherence constraints

Outcome sets must sum to 100% and strike ladders must be monotonic. Violations are both a risk and a signal.

Resolution risk

What counts as “yes” depends on contract terms and resolution sources. We read the rules before we quote the price.

For venues

Have a market that needs liquidity?

Tell us about the contracts you list or plan to launch, and we’ll tell you how we would make markets in them.

Liquidity for venues Contact us