Proprietary market maker · Event contracts
CipherG Liquidity quotes bids and offers on event contracts with its own money and nobody else’s. The client list is empty on purpose.
An event contract (the kind often called a prediction market) pays $1 if an event happens, so it trades between 0¢ and 100¢ and its price is a forecast. We keep a bid and an offer on it, so that forecast is one people can trade.
More than 105,000 trades executed across the firm’s venue accounts, as of October 19, 2026. The rest of the record, results included, is kept at the conservative end, checked two ways and shared on request with venues, banks and payment providers, counterparties and regulators.
The figure and the methodWho runs this
CipherG Liquidity is one person in Raleigh, Grayson Dodson, its Managing Member, working with AI agents. The agents research fair value, write and test the system’s code, and prepare the records. The quoting system runs only on parameters he approves. Every limit, every change and every trading decision goes through him.
The system fails closed: if a control trips, quoting stays off until he turns it back on.
How the desk worksGiven the choice, we would rather quote three cents wide and be there than one cent wide and gone.
The same two cents is thin at 50¢ and generous at 90¢, so one width cannot serve every price.
N°002 What a two-cent spread pays forAround a release, an injury or a breaking story, we may widen, cut size or step out entirely. Which one depends on the market, and on how far its price can gap in a moment.
N°002 Scheduled newsA position stays open until the contract settles under its rules, however clear the outcome looks from the first headline.
N°003 Sizing for the jumpIf the estimate for a contract we hold runs from 40¢ to 46¢, we count it at 40¢.
N°001 How we countCoverage
We quote all six today, and many more kinds of contract besides. They share a price scale and little else: each settles from its own sources, on its own clock, and gaps for its own reasons.
The figure lands in one scheduled minute, and a ladder of strikes has to reprice at once without falling out of order.
One contract per outcome, and the set should add up to about 100¢ for however long a count or certification takes.
The price can gap on one play or one injury report, and the game does not pause while a quote catches up.
Strikes and ranges hang on an underlying that can move a long way overnight or over a weekend.
Settles on one station’s reading at a fixed hour, while the forecast models update on their own schedule.
Long tails of unlikely outcomes, and resolution wording that has to be read closely before anything is quoted.
Between the event and the payment sit one named source, a time when trading stops, the exchange's determination and the clearinghouse. All of it is written down before the first trade, including what happens when the source is late or the outcome is unclear, and who has the final word.
Three figures from the record are now public: how long the desk has quoted, how many trades it has made, and how much it has traded. What each one measures, what none of them measures, and why results stay with the full record.
Every event contract settles at 0¢ or 100¢, so our limits are set on the loss at settlement and applied event by event, across all the contracts that hinge on the same fact. How calm the price has been does not enter into it.
Principles
A quote starts from fair value, set by proprietary algorithms built on our own research.
Limits are set on what a position would lose at settlement, and netted across all the contracts tied to the same event.
A separate risk layer checks each order against a price band before it goes out, and pulls quotes when an input goes stale. Unsure whether trading is safe, it stops.
We follow each venue’s rules, never trade on material non-public information, and never try to influence an outcome.
For venues
We quote on Kalshi and Polymarket US, take part in venue liquidity programs, and report to each venue on our quoting. The venue page lists what to send.